The Bullwhip Effect

What is The Bullwhip Effect?

The bullwhip effect is an instance wherein tiny variations of consumption on the end that is retail of the distribution chain are amplified as you move through into the supply chain, from end of the retail chain up to manufacturing.

This occurs when a retailer alters the amount of the product it buys via wholesalers depending on a slight variation in the real or forecast demand for the good. Because they do not have complete details about the shift in demand and the fact that wholesalers are not aware of demand shifts, they increase the amount of orders it receives from the manufacturer to more than it should while the manufacturer having a greater distance from the manufacturer, will alter the quantity it produces by an even greater amount.

The word is derived from a scientific idea that states that the whip movements are similar to amplifying the movement from its source (the hand that is cracking the whip) until the point at which it reaches its end (the part that is the tail).

The risk caused by the effect of bullwhip is it can increase inefficiencies in the supply chain because every step in the supply chain estimations demand in a way that is more and more inaccurate. This could lead to over-investment in inventory and revenue loss and a decline on customer support, a delay in schedules, or even bankruptcies or layoffs.

Learning the Bullwhip Effect

The bullwhip effect generally occurs from the retail level all the way up the supply chain, eventually reaching that of the manufacturer. If a retailer is able to use the data from sales immediately to predict an increased demand for its product, the retailer would send an order for more product through its distribution partner. In turn, the distributor will relay the request to the manufacturer of the item. This is an element of supply chain operations , but is not necessarily indicative of the bullwhip effect.

The bullwhip effect typically distorts the process in one of two ways. The first is when the initial retail order changes are caused by an incorrect demand forecast. The magnitude of the mistake tends to increase as it moves through the supply chain until the manufacturer. Another instance occurs when the retailer has accurate information regarding demand however, it can lead to inaccurate conclusion about the details of the reasons and the specifics of the order change are not recorded, leading to inaccurate assessments made by wholesalers that are then amplified further along the chain.

 

An example of the bullwhip effect.

For example, imagine the possibility of a hot chocolate shop which typically sells 100 cups daily during winter. On the day that is particularly cold in the region the store sells 120 cup instead. In the mistake of assuming that the growth in sales as an overall trend the retailer asks for components for 150 cups directly from its distributor. The distributor is aware of the increase and increases their purchase request with the producer in anticipation of more requests from other retailers, too. The manufacturer expands its production run in anticipation of bigger demands for the product in the coming years.

 

Each time the forecasts for demand, they have been becoming more distorted. If the retailer anticipates the return of normal sales of hot chocolate when weather improves then it will suddenly be faced with more inventory than is needed. The manufacturer and distributor will also have more stocks.

 

The other reason that explains the dearth of data is that logistics operations at wholesale level can take longer to shift, meaning the conditions that caused the change in the demand on the retail side could have passed before the wholesaler had reacted. Since changing production outputs in manufacturing is more time-consuming and the information from retailers is slower in getting to manufacturers, the challenge in reacting properly to shifts in demand is significantly.

 

Although the store accurate estimates of the demand, such as due to the beginning of the local hot chocolate festival the bullwhip effect may be present. The distributor, being not fully aware of the local climate might conclude that the problem is due to an overall rise in popularity of hot chocolate rather than the specific circumstances specific to the retailer. The manufacturer, who is further removed from the current situation will be less likely to comprehend and react appropriately to the shift in demand.

Effects from the Bullwhip Effect

In the case above the manufacturer could have a large excess of its product. This could cause interruptions in the supply chain, and also to the company’s operations, with increased costs for transportation, storage spoilage, loss in revenue, delay in the delivery of goods, and so on. The retailer and the distributor in this scenario could encounter similar problems.

 

What does an Bullwhip Effect indicate?

A bullwhip effect is a sign that a minor mistake in assessing demand for consumer goods has been amplified in the supply chain. This implies that communication between companies in the supply chain is poor, which results in companies in the supply chain not having crucial information.

What is the Bullwhip Effect?

The effect of the bullwhip can be difficult to detect in real-time as it is due to a lack of communication across the supply chain. Most often, it’s the result of a situation that is noticed in the aftermath, after the inefficiencies have already been established.

 

How can you prevent the Bullwhip Effect?

There are a variety of things that companies within a supply chain could do to avoid or lessen the possibility and the extent of the bullwhip effect. In the first place, they should make sure that there is a clear and consistent communication between businesses in the upper and lower levels of within the chain of supply. This can prevent temporary or limited shifts in supply being misinterpreted as being more expansive than they really are. Companies should also be sure that they take a broader view when making forecasts of demand, to lessen the effect of any short-term or temporary shifts. In addition, they can strive to speed up the rate at that they can react to changes in demand. This means they will be able to readjust their plans more easily even if they do not accurately assess the demand. It also eliminates the requirement to over-produce or order more to provide an extra buffer in the event of shifts in demand.

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